A-BLOCK ESTIMATORS — ANALYSIS_SPEC_v1 §1, vintage: receipts per the FEC_Coverage_Through column; most committees report through 2026-06-30 but the file spans 2026-06-16 to 2026-08-18. Corrected 2026-08-30: this line used to state a narrower mixed range that the file itself contradicts.
rows after viability filter: 112 (incumbents 48 / non-incumbents 64)

--- A1a PRIMARY: incumbents only (tenure > 0) ---
incumbents-only                    n= 48  Pearson r=+0.3108 (p=3.15e-02)  boot95=[+0.058,+0.683]  Spearman rho=+0.4639  Fisher z=+0.3214
    threshold as registered: r >= 0.60  ->  MISS

--- A1b SECONDARY: pooled, contains the incumbent/challenger contrast ---
pooled (all candidates)            n=112  Pearson r=+0.5756 (p=3.16e-11)  boot95=[+0.396,+0.819]  Spearman rho=+0.8312  Fisher z=+0.6559
  pooled within DEM                n= 56  Pearson r=+0.5183 (p=4.28e-05)  boot95=[+0.297,+0.882]  Spearman rho=+0.8455  Fisher z=+0.5741
  pooled within REP                n= 55  Pearson r=+0.6830 (p=9.19e-09)  boot95=[+0.501,+0.881]  Spearman rho=+0.8273  Fisher z=+0.8348
    threshold as registered: 0.70 <= r <= 0.90 and both party signs > 0  ->  MISS

--- context: within-party, incumbents only ---
  incumbents DEM                   n= 24  Pearson r=+0.2553 (p=2.29e-01)  boot95=[-0.074,+0.789]  Spearman rho=+0.4257  Fisher z=+0.2611
  incumbents REP                   n= 24  Pearson r=+0.4303 (p=3.58e-02)  boot95=[+0.085,+0.828]  Spearman rho=+0.5442  Fisher z=+0.4603

--- context: zero-inflation, the reviewer's charge ---
    non-incumbents at tenure 0: n=64, mean corp share 0.51%
    incumbents:                 n=48, mean corp share 12.40%
    -> the pooled figure is largely this two-group gap, exactly as charged.

--- context: leverage, DECLARED not removed ---
    Marcy Kaptur           OH-09  tenure  43.8  corp share   8.41%
    Mike Turner            OH-10  tenure  23.8  corp share  21.24%
    Jim Costa              CA-21  tenure  21.8  corp share  36.79%