# Project Charter
## Workforce Stability Among Post-9/11 Veterans — Evidence Program

| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| **Program Title** | Workforce Stability Among Post-9/11 Veterans |
| **Charter Version** | 1.0 |
| **Charter Date** | 2026-04-16 |
| **Sponsor** | Legends' Return Foundation (founder-operated; Patrick Neil Bradley, sole signatory) |
| **Program Manager** | Patrick Neil Bradley |
| **Methodology Base** | Six Sigma DMAIC, Military AAR Discipline |
| **Classification** | Public-Interest Research |

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## 1. Background

Post-9/11 veterans separate from active service into a labor market that does not consistently translate military experience into stable civilian employment. Federal data exists to characterize this gap — the American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample, Bureau of Labor Statistics LAUS, Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional Accounts, and VA National Center for Veterans Analysis and Statistics — but is rarely integrated into a single analytical view that policymakers, employer coalitions, and veteran-services organizations can act on.

Legends' Return Foundation sponsors this program to produce a defensible, reproducible evidence base on workforce stability for the post-9/11 cohort.

## 2. Mission Statement (Commander's Intent)

**Produce an integrated, reproducible analytical evidence base describing post-9/11 veteran workforce stability across geography, disability status, occupation, and time — and publish it under a methodology any qualified analyst can audit.**

The end state is a public case study, a reusable data pipeline, an illustrative retention model with a transparent model card, and an interactive explorer — delivered to a standard that withstands scrutiny from a Federal program office, a regional employer coalition, or an academic reviewer.

## 3. Objectives & Success Criteria

| # | Objective | Success Criterion |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Integrate four federal data sources at the PUMA / state / sector level | All four sources joined, validated, and version-controlled by v0.10 |
| 2 | Characterize the post-9/11 cohort on geography, disability, and labor-force outcomes | Reproducible cohort funnel with row-count tolerances at every step |
| 3 | Build an illustrative retention model with a transparent ceiling | Model card published with AUC, calibration, limitations, and a `Section §4a` on synthetic-target effects |
| 4 | Publish a case-study page, model card, and interactive explorer | All three artifacts live on PatrickNeilBradley.com with build-log references |
| 5 | Maintain build discipline across the program | Build log appended for every ingest, join, and model refit |

## 4. Scope

**In-Scope**
- ACS PUMS (2019, 2021, 2022, 2023 — 2020 unavailable due to COVID disruption)
- BLS LAUS, BEA Regional Accounts, VA NCVAS as joinable context layers
- Post-9/11 cohort filter (MLPA == 1), ages 22–64, U.S. states + DC
- O*NET Work Context composites for occupation-level features (Phase 6 add)
- Illustrative logit retention model with O*NET composites folded in
- Public case-study page, model card, model explorer

**Out-of-Scope**
- Pre-9/11 era veterans (descriptive only, not modeled)
- Active-duty service members (filtered out via ESR codes)
- Causal inference on policy interventions (program publishes correlation, not causation)
- Individual-level identification or PII; only PUMS public microdata
- Predictions about any named employer

## 5. Stakeholders & Governance

| Stakeholder | Interest | Engagement |
|---|---|---|
| Legends' Return Foundation | Sponsor; mission alignment (founder-operated, disabled veteran-owned LLC) | Quarterly program review |
| Post-9/11 veterans | End beneficiaries | Lived-experience review by veteran reviewer (11C, post-9/11) |
| Veteran services organizations | Downstream consumers of findings | Public artifacts and explorer access |
| Employer coalitions | Hiring and retention insights | Public artifacts |
| Federal data stewards (Census, BLS, BEA, VA) | Data-source integrity | Adherence to public-use terms and citation standards |

**Governance Cadence**
- Daily: Build-log entry for any ingest, join, or refit
- Weekly: Program Manager review of risks, AUC trajectory, blockers
- At each phase gate: Documented decision log with rationale
- Program close: Formal After-Action Review

## 6. Phase Plan & Key Milestones

| Phase | Milestone | Target | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 1 | Scaffold + ACS PUMS ingest live (v0.1) | 2026-04-16 | Complete |
| Phase 2 | Full ACS pull, all years and states (v0.2) | 2026-04-16 | Complete |
| Phase 3 | BLS / BEA / VA joins; cohort validation | 2026-04-17 | Complete |
| Phase 4 | Modeling prep, baseline logit | 2026-04-18 | Complete |
| Phase 5 | Model card v1, case study page draft | 2026-04-19 | Complete |
| Phase 6 | O*NET Work Context composites (v0.16) | 2026-04-20 | Complete |
| Phase 7 | Tier-2 OCCP → 8-digit SOC crosswalk for clean composite identification | Blocked on data access | Pending |
| Phase 8 | Public launch and supporting blog post | Pending | Pending |
| Close | Formal After-Action Review | Within 14 days of public launch | Pending |

## 7. Assumptions

- Census, BLS, BEA, and VA public data sources remain available under current public-use terms throughout the program.
- A synthetic retention outcome is acceptable for an *illustrative* model when the model card transparently discloses the synthetic-target ceiling.
- O*NET Work Context composites carry signal independent of SOC-major dummies, subject to documented collinearity.
- The Program Manager is the sole executor; no team capacity is assumed.

## 8. Constraints

- Sandbox network restrictions prevent direct Census/BLS API access from the build environment; execution is handed off to a local Windows machine (documented in v0.1a).
- O*NET database extracts beyond Tier-1 require an access path outside the allowlist; Tier-2 crosswalk is blocked until obtained.
- All published artifacts must conform to the PatrickNeilBradley.com brand spec (patriotic editorial).
- No PII; only public microdata.

## 9. Top Risks at Charter

| # | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthetic retention outcome interpreted as a real prediction by a casual reader | Medium | High | Model card §4a; case-study language emphasizes "illustrative" throughout |
| 2 | O*NET Tier-2 crosswalk unavailable; composites remain collinear with SOC-major dummies | High | Medium | Document collinearity explicitly; Phase 7 deferred, not cancelled |
| 3 | Sandbox API restrictions block reproducibility for outside reviewers | Medium | Medium | Pipeline runs cleanly on standard local Python; `.env` template documented |
| 4 | Brand inconsistency between case study, model card, and explorer | Medium | Low | Single design spec; consolidation pass scheduled |
| 5 | Reviewer questions the lived-experience legitimacy of the cohort framing | Low | Medium | Veteran reviewer (11C, post-9/11) is the Program Manager |

## 10. Definition of Done

The program is complete when:

1. The case study, model card, and explorer are live on PatrickNeilBradley.com.
2. A complete build log exists from v0.1 to terminal version.
3. The Project Charter, Risk Register, and After-Action Review are published as downloadable PDFs alongside the case study.
4. The After-Action Review has been written and reviewed.

## 11. Approvals

This program is founder-operated. Patrick Neil Bradley signs in dual capacity as Founder of Legends' Return Foundation and Program Manager. Founder-operator status is disclosed openly; it is neither obscured nor inflated.

| Role | Name | Signature | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Founder, Legends' Return Foundation / Program Manager | Patrick Neil Bradley | — | 2026-04-16 |

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*Charter document, version 1.0. Subsequent material changes will be recorded in the Decision Log and reflected in the next charter revision.*